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Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know about trading on Tabiri Markets — from how prediction markets work to how your money moves.

The Basics

What is Tabiri Markets?

Tabiri Markets is a prediction market exchange. You can buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, sports results, economic indicators, and more.

If you think an event will happen, you buy a YES contract. If you think it won't, you buy NO. Each contract settles at either 100¢ (KES 1.00) if the outcome happens, or if it doesn't. The price you pay reflects the market's collective belief about probability.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a trading exchange where the assets are contracts tied to the outcomes of future events. Instead of buying shares in a company, you buy contracts on whether something will happen.

Markets aggregate information from many participants. When lots of informed people trade, the prices become accurate probability estimates — often more accurate than polls or expert opinion alone. This is called the wisdom of crowds.

How do YES and NO contracts work?

Every market has two contracts: YES and NO. They are complements — YES + NO always equals 100¢ at settlement.

  • If the event happens → YES settles at 100¢, NO settles at 0¢
  • If the event doesn't happen → NO settles at 100¢, YES settles at 0¢

Example: A YES contract bought at 60¢ earns you 40¢ profit if the event occurs (you receive 100¢, paid 60¢). You lose 60¢ if it doesn't.

What does the price mean?

The price of a contract is its implied probability, expressed in cents. A YES contract at 70¢ means the market collectively believes there is a 70% chance the event happens.

Prices range from 1¢ to 99¢. A price closer to 99¢ means near-certainty it happens; closer to 1¢ means near-certainty it doesn't.

Because YES + NO = 100¢, a YES price of 70¢ implies a NO price of 30¢ — they always sum to 100.

Trading & the Order Book

What is an order book?

The order book is a live list of all open buy (BID) and sell (ASK) orders for a contract, ranked by price.

  • Bids — people willing to buy YES at a given price, from highest to lowest
  • Asks — people willing to sell YES at a given price, from lowest to highest

The gap between the best bid and best ask is called the spread. A narrow spread means a liquid market with lots of active traders. A wide spread means less activity.

How does order matching work?

Tabiri Markets uses a continuous limit order book with price-time priority matching:

  1. Price priority first — the best-priced orders match first. A BUY order at 65¢ will match against SELL orders at 65¢ or lower before anything else.
  2. Time priority second — among orders at the same price, the one placed earliest matches first. Being first in the queue matters.

When you place a BUY at 65¢, the engine immediately checks for any resting SELL orders priced ≤ 65¢. If found, a trade executes instantly. Any unfilled quantity rests in the book waiting for a counterparty.

BUY and SELL are always from the perspective of the YES contract. Selling YES at 40¢ is equivalent to buying NO at 60¢ — the engine handles both sides of the book together.

Matching runs inside a database transaction with a per-contract advisory lock, so no two orders can simultaneously corrupt the same order book.

What is a limit order vs a market order?

Limit order — you specify the exact price you're willing to pay (or accept). Your order only fills at that price or better. If no counterparty is available at your price, your order rests in the book until one appears (or you cancel it).

Market order — you accept the best available price immediately. Market orders fill instantly against whatever resting liquidity exists. Use these when you want to trade now and aren't sensitive to the exact price.

⚠ In thin markets (few resting orders), a market order can fill at a much worse price than you expected. Limit orders give you price certainty.

Can I cancel an order?

Yes. Any open or partially-filled limit order can be cancelled from your Orders tab before it fully executes. When cancelled, any held funds for the unfilled portion are released back to your available balance immediately.

Orders that have already fully filled cannot be cancelled — the trade has already happened.

How are trading fees calculated?

Tabiri Markets charges a fee per contract traded, calculated as:

fee = 0.07 × N × p × (1 − p)

Where N is the number of contracts, and p is the contract price expressed as a decimal (e.g. 0.65 for 65¢).

The fee is highest at 50¢ (maximum uncertainty) and approaches zero at 1¢ or 99¢ (near-certain outcomes). At p = 0.50, the maximum fee is 1.75¢ per contract.

Both the buyer and seller pay this fee on their respective sides of the trade. Fees are collected at the time of the fill, not at placement.

Example: buy 10 YES contracts at 60¢ → fee = 0.07 × 10 × 0.60 × 0.40 = 1.68¢
What happens to my funds when I place an order?

When you place a limit order, the funds needed to cover the worst-case cost (including estimated fee) are held — they remain in your wallet but are deducted from your available balance. You cannot spend held funds on other orders.

When your order fills, the held funds are consumed and the contracts are credited to your position. If you cancel, the hold is released immediately.

Markets & Resolution

When does a market close?

Every market has a close date and time set by its creator. Once that time passes, no new orders can be placed and no existing orders can be filled. The market moves to Closed status automatically.

For event-based markets (sports, elections), the close time is typically set just before the event begins — for example, a football match market would close at kick-off. This prevents trading on already-known information.

After closing, the market awaits resolution — the determination of the final YES/NO outcome.

How is a market resolved?

Markets on Tabiri Markets resolve in one of two ways, depending on how they were created:

  • Admin resolution — a Tabiri Markets moderator verifies the real-world outcome and resolves the market. Used for public markets.
  • Consensus resolution — participants vote on the outcome using a stake-weighted mechanism. The side with more vote-weight wins. Used for creator-managed and private markets.

Once a market resolves, payouts are calculated and credited to winning positions automatically within minutes.

What happens to my position when a market resolves?

After resolution:

  • If you hold YES contracts and YES wins → you receive 100¢ per contract in your wallet
  • If you hold YES contracts and NO wins → your contracts expire worthless (0¢)
  • If you hold NO contracts (sold YES short) and NO wins → you keep your sale proceeds and owe nothing more

Your wallet is credited automatically. You don't need to do anything — settlement is handled by the platform.

What if a market is cancelled?

If a market is cancelled (e.g. the event didn't happen, or there was an error in the market definition), all open orders are cancelled and all participants are fully refunded their original cost basis — including trading fees paid.

Cancellation refunds are processed automatically and appear in your wallet transaction history.

What are private markets?

Private markets are only visible to participants invited by the creator. They don't appear in the public market list.

Creators can share invite links or send invites directly to email addresses. Anyone with an invite link can join (after creating an account if they don't have one). Private markets are ideal for groups, communities, or events where you want a controlled participant set.

All times shown — what timezone are they in?

All times on Tabiri Markets are stored in UTC internally. The app converts them to your device's local timezone when displaying them, so you always see times that make sense for where you are.

If a market shows a close time of "17:00", that's 17:00 in your local time — not UTC. This means users in Nairobi (EAT, UTC+3) and users in Lagos (WAT, UTC+1) will see different clock times for the same market, but they will both experience the close at the same real-world moment.

Platform Rules

What types of predictions are prohibited?

Tabiri Markets strictly prohibits markets that predict on the following:

  • Deaths or assassinations — whether a specific person will die or be killed
  • Armed conflict & war — outcomes of military attacks, terrorist incidents, or acts of war
  • Acts of violence — crimes, assaults, or any event contingent on harm to individuals
  • Natural disasters as harm events — markets framed around the number of casualties from disasters
  • Illegal activity — any market whose resolution depends on the commission of a crime
  • Personal private information — predictions tied to someone's private medical, financial, or personal details without their consent

Markets of this type will be immediately cancelled and refunded. Repeat offenders may have their accounts suspended.

If you see a market you believe violates these rules, report it to support@tabiri.markets and we will review it promptly.

Account & Verification

Why do I need to verify my account to trade?

Verification protects you and the platform. It ensures that real money moves to and from real, identifiable people, prevents fraud, and keeps us compliant with financial regulations including Kenya's Capital Markets Act and Data Protection Act 2019.

We keep verification as frictionless as possible — email and phone confirmation is all you need to start trading (Tier 1).

What are the KYC tiers?
Tier How to reach it What you can do
0 — Unverified New account Browse markets only
1 — Basic Verify email + phone Trade, deposit, withdraw (standard limits)
2 — Full Submit ID + selfie, approved by team Higher limits, advanced features
I didn't receive my verification code. What should I do?

Check your spam/junk folder for email codes. For SMS, ensure your phone number is entered in the correct format (e.g. +254712345678 for Kenyan numbers).

You can request a new code using the Resend code option — wait at least 30 seconds between requests. Codes expire after 10 minutes and are limited to 5 verification attempts.

If the problem persists, contact support at support@tabiri.markets.

Deposits & Withdrawals

How do I deposit funds?

Deposits are made via M-Pesa STK Push. Go to Wallet → Deposit, enter the amount, and you'll receive a push notification on your Safaricom phone to approve the payment. Funds reflect in your wallet within seconds of approval.

  • Minimum deposit: KES 10
  • Maximum per transaction: KES 1,000
  • Your phone number must be a verified Safaricom line
How do I withdraw funds?

Go to Wallet → Withdraw, enter the amount, and confirm with a one-time PIN sent to your verified phone. Withdrawals are sent via M-Pesa B2C to your registered Safaricom number.

For security, each withdrawal requires OTP confirmation — even if you're already logged in. Funds typically arrive within a few seconds; occasionally up to a few minutes during peak hours.

My deposit shows as pending. What's happening?

Pending means we've sent the STK Push to your phone but haven't received your confirmation yet. The request expires after a few minutes if not approved.

If you approved the payment on your phone but the deposit still shows pending after 5 minutes, contact support with your M-Pesa confirmation SMS and we'll credit your account manually.

Is my money safe on the platform?

All user funds are held in segregated wallets and never mixed with platform operating funds. Every credit and debit is recorded in a double-entry ledger — every shilling is accounted for at all times.

Withdrawals require two-factor confirmation (your login session + OTP to your phone) to prevent unauthorised access.

Still have questions? Email us at support@tabiri.markets